## Can you eat all the chocolates?

This week’s Riddler Classic is a neat puzzle about eating chocolates.

I have 10 chocolates in a bag: Two are milk chocolate, while the other eight are dark chocolate. One at a time, I randomly pull chocolates from the bag and eat them — that is, until I pick a chocolate of the other kind. When I get to the other type of chocolate, I put it back in the bag and start drawing again with the remaining chocolates. I keep going until I have eaten all 10 chocolates.

For example, if I first pull out a dark chocolate, I will eat it. (I’ll always eat the first chocolate I pull out.) If I pull out a second dark chocolate, I will eat that as well. If the third one is milk chocolate, I will not eat it (yet), and instead place it back in the bag. Then I will start again, eating the first chocolate I pull out.

What are the chances that the last chocolate I eat is milk chocolate?

Here is my original solution:
[Show Solution]

And here is a far more elegant solution, courtesy of @rahmdphd on Twitter.
[Show Solution]

## Flawless war

his week’s Riddler Classic has to do with the card game “War”. Here is the problem, paraphrased:

War is a two-player game in which a standard deck of cards is first shuffled and then divided into two piles with 26 cards each; one pile for each player. In every turn of the game, both players flip over and reveal the top card of their deck. The player whose card has a higher rank wins the turn and places both cards on the bottom of their pile. Assuming a deck is randomly shuffled before every game, how many games of War would you expect to play until you had a game that lasted just 26 turns (with no ties; a flawless victory)?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Cutting a ruler into pieces

This week’s Riddler Classic is a paradoxical question about cutting a ruler into smaller pieces.

Recently, there was an issue with the production of foot-long rulers. It seems that each ruler was accidentally sliced at three random points along the ruler, resulting in four pieces. Looking on the bright side, that means there are now four times as many rulers — they just happen to have different lengths. On average, how long are the pieces that contain the 6-inch mark?

With four cuts, each piece will be on average 3 inches long, but that can’t be the answer, can it?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Dungeons & Dragons

This week’s Riddler Classic is a probability problem about the game Dungeons & Dragons. Here it goes:

When you roll a die “with advantage,” you roll the die twice and keep the higher result. Rolling “with disadvantage” is similar, except you keep the lower result instead. The rules further specify that when a player rolls with both advantage and disadvantage, they cancel out, and the player rolls a single die. Yawn!

Extra Credit: Instead of maximizing your expected roll, suppose you need to roll N or better with your 20-sided die. For each value of N, is it better to use advantage of disadvantage, disadvantage of advantage or rolling a single die?

Here is a detailed derivation of the relevant probabilities:
[Show Solution]

And here are the results:
[Show Solution]

## Flip to freedom

This week’s Riddler Classic is a problem about coin flipping. The text of the original problem is quite long, so I will paraphrase it here:

There are $n$ prisoners, each with access to a random number generator (generates uniform random numbers in $[0,1]$) and a fair coin. Each prisoner is given the opportunity to flip their coin once if they so choose. If all of the flipped coins come up Heads, all prisoners are released. But if any of the flipped coins come up Tails, or if no coins are flipped at all, the prisoners are not released. If the prisoners cannot communicate in any way and do not know who is flipping their coin or not, how can they maximize their chances of being released?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Flipping your way to victory

This week’s Riddler Classic concerns a paradoxical coin-flipping game:

You have two fair coins, labeled A and B. When you flip coin A, you get 1 point if it comes up heads, but you lose 1 point if it comes up tails. Coin B is worth twice as much — when you flip coin B, you get 2 points if it comes up heads, but you lose 2 points if it comes up tails.

To play the game, you make a total of 100 flips. For each flip, you can choose either coin, and you know the outcomes of all the previous flips. In order to win, you must finish with a positive total score. In your eyes, finishing with 2 points is just as good as finishing with 200 points — any positive score is a win. (By the same token, finishing with 0 or −2 points is just as bad as finishing with −200 points.)

If you optimize your strategy, what percentage of games will you win? (Remember, one game consists of 100 coin flips.)

Extra credit: What if coin A isn’t fair (but coin B is still fair)? That is, if coin A comes up heads with probability p and you optimize your strategy, what percentage of games will you win?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Delirious ducks

This week’s Riddler Classic is about random walks on a lattice:

Two delirious ducks are having a difficult time finding each other in their pond. The pond happens to contain a 3×3 grid of rocks.

Every minute, each duck randomly swims, independently of the other duck, from one rock to a neighboring rock in the 3×3 grid — up, down, left or right, but not diagonally. So if a duck is at the middle rock, it will next swim to one of the four side rocks with probability 1/4. From a side rock, it will swim to one of the two adjacent corner rocks or back to the middle rock, each with probability 1/3. And from a corner rock, it will swim to one of the two adjacent side rocks with probability 1/2.

If the ducks both start at the middle rock, then on average, how long will it take until they’re at the same rock again? (Of course, there’s a 1/4 chance that they’ll swim in the same direction after the first minute, in which case it would only take one minute for them to be at the same rock again. But it could take much longer, if they happen to keep missing each other.)

Extra credit: What if there are three or more ducks? If they all start in the middle rock, on average, how long will it take until they are all at the same rock again?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Mismatched socks

This week’s Riddler Classic is a problem familiar to many…

I have $n$ pairs of socks in a drawer. Each pair is distinct from another and consists of two matching socks. Alas, I’m negligent when it comes to folding my laundry, and so the socks are not folded into pairs. This morning, fumbling around in the dark, I pull the socks out of the drawer, randomly and one at a time, until I have a matching pair of socks among the ones I’ve removed from the drawer.

On average, how many socks will I pull out of the drawer in order to get my first matching pair?

Here is my solution:
[Show Solution]

## Optimal HORSE

This week’s Riddler Classic is about how to optimally play HORSE — the playground shot-making game. Here is the problem.

Two players have taken to the basketball court for a friendly game of HORSE. The game is played according to its typical playground rules, but here’s how it works, if you’ve never had the pleasure: Alice goes first, taking a shot from wherever she’d like. If the shot goes in, Bob is obligated to try to make the exact same shot. If he misses, he gets the letter H and it’s Alice’s turn to shoot again from wherever she’d like. If he makes the first shot, he doesn’t get a letter but it’s again Alice’s turn to shoot from wherever she’d like. If Alice misses her first shot, she doesn’t get a letter but Bob gets to select any shot he’d like, in an effort to obligate Alice. Every missed obligated shot earns the player another letter in the sequence H-O-R-S-E, and the first player to spell HORSE loses.

Now, Alice and Bob are equally good shooters, and they are both perfectly aware of their skills. That is, they can each select fine-tuned shots such that they have any specific chance they’d like of going in. They could choose to take a 99 percent layup, for example, or a 50 percent midrange jumper, or a 2 percent half-court bomb.

If Alice and Bob are both perfect strategists, what type of shot should Alice take to begin the game?

What types of shots should each player take at each state of the game — a given set of letters and a given player’s turn?

Here is how I solved the problem:
[Show Solution]

and here is the solution:
[Show Solution]

## Tank counting

This week’s Riddler Classic is a simple-sounding problem about statistics. But it’s not so simple! Here is a paraphrased version of the problem:

There are $n$ tanks, labeled $\{1,2,\dots,n\}$. We are presented with a sample of $k$ tanks, chosen uniformly at random, and we observe that the smallest label among the sample is $22$ and the largest label is $114$. Both $n$ and $k$ are unknown. What is our best estimate of $n$?

Here is a short introduction on parameter estimation, for the curious:
[Show Solution]

Here is my solution to the problem:
[Show Solution]